The Determinants of the Decision to Join Terrorism
Mario Gilli  1@  
1 : Department of Economics, Management and Statistics - University of Milano-Bicocca  (DEMS)

What are the individual, social, economic and political causes of terrorism? In the last years there have been many empirical analysis of these questions, however we believe a general theoretic model is still missing and it would significantly help empirical research and data interpretations. This paper is just a first attempt towards this aim, the construction of a general model that consider individual education, government responsiveness and economic development as possible factors in a general model of why individual agents might decide to use terrorism as a political strategy to try to reach their political aim.The above important empirical works focus on new sources of data examined in new ways, however the conclusions drawn from the evidence are partially contradictory and not always convincing, e.g. because they often are overly confident that correlations in the data have causal interpretations. As a result, although these works make real contributions to our understanding of the empirical landscape of terrorism, we remain partially skeptical without a theoretical model. The aim of the model is to study the determinants of the citizens and government decisions. As possible determinants we consider citizens' human capital, citizens political preferences and the population political heterogeneity, labour productivity as a measure of economic development, government responsiveness to political activism and government instability. In particular, using these exogenous variables we determine the dynamic of citizens decisions and its interaction with the amount of government repression.


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